tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg February 11, 2020 2:00am-4:00am EST
♪ >> good morning, welcome to bloomberg markets the european open. i'm anna edwards live from our european headquarters here in the city of london. the cash trade is just over an hour away. anna: coronavirus deaths top 1,000. but investors look past the economic impact as global equities climbed. wall street hits another record high. european companies downplay the impacts of the virus. the supply chain is safe.
it has seen no softness in booking. > the carmakers cost cutting continues as it's forecasted quite significantly higher than 2019. matt miller speaks to the c.e.o. in stuttgart. >> good morning. everybody. just over an hour away from the cash equities trading session here in europe for this morning. let's have a look at what's going on in the future's market then. and this is the european futures markets. all-time highs for the s & m. they're trying to look beyond the tragically rising death to of coronavirus. some assessments after london putting it at 1%. perhaps that gives reasons for investors to try to look beyond. so that's what we see on the european futures. u.s. features at this point pointing a little bit higher. there are going to be things in
focus in particular into the u.s. jerome powell will be speaking later. mary daily speaking in the last 48 hours talking about the u.s. company once again. american exceptionalism. a lot of cool people supporting this week. let's have a quick look at what's going on at the asian session. japan out of action. don't have the japanese markets open. .6 of a positive up by 6 1%. the ones that are open looking more positive in asia, the hong kong market up by 1.1% as you can see. we've got oil prices as well. >> from opec and friends and trying to set up any kind of meeting.
53.93. our top story the coronavirus death toll has topped 1,000. infections surpassing 43,000. china's province which is at the epicenter reported the highest numbers of fatalities. . two health officials have been removed from their post. -- dent x exs i exmbs i president xi xi ping. we can make it cooper. macro strategies here with me on set in london. we're also joined by the latest on the virus itself by bloomberg tv an or the steve mckenzie. >> we went through a few of the latest headline there is around how this is continuing to play out in china. but what do we know about the latest infection numbers and the
international spread? >> so the top lionel realingly terms of what the investors are focused on is the pace of infections and that has slowed for at least a third or fourth day now. so that trend continues. we're not a the point where we can say according to the experts that it's starting to top out and pee. >> yeah. people would take come from that. the case continue to rise. 103 deaths just in the province f wubay alone. slightly lower from that previous comfort. in terms of internationally, they've got about 42 cases now. 2,000 people in quarn fiend and that's at the singapore ha 45 cases at least. and they're saying that the tour industry they're going to see a drop of about 20%. it had the 13th case in the u.s.
as well. so the focus is on that international spread. they're considered about it with people who have no travel history in china. >> but there is the fact that those cases -- the increase in those case does seem to stabilizing. >> yeah, that is where the focus is. and also focus on supply chains and the effects at which business can get back. in the greater china region. i told him what is it that we're hearing about businesses and how able they are to get back unand running? >> well, it is another work day. the second work day is extend. i made some calls to some of the economy. the big e company. then we're going to be in terms of their workforce, backup full fire power. but some of their work is going to the office, most still working from home. the big automakers. dahl. oing to get with
and name daimler. and tesla has started production. when it comes to -- the first week of february and with a 90% growth. >> when you look at things like kamala harris. some people returning but many still working from home. >> >> apologies. we're having a few issues with the technology. no doubt for lifeline because those working from home in china. threat let's the market perspective. >> we have laura glomer in london and it seems quite phenomenal markets are big to this this idea that stocks in the u.s. can go higher, the dollar goes higher on the an nfluence of factors or we'll
give us how much longer this can be sustained? >> we have the bond market. so the people you mean is at the highest against actual world since 2055. and in the bond market has been the highest since 2002. now, i think this will persist for the near term because when you look at underlying fundamentals. they continue to hold ground there. notely in europe. 2019. from i my late and then we have these broader virus fierce damp ling marks and asia seriously. now, how long can this persist? >> well, look -- for example over night. we saw quite a strong asian rally. i think this points to some
signs that bargain hunters are coming to the table. when we look at forward p.e. and third 13.9. so quite a significant gap. there is a gap but not to this extent? does it make sense that u.s. stocks around at record lem because maybe the u.s. should outperform given the ability to be these and to be insulated. but than doesn't necessarily mean we should be at and all-time high, does it? >> it's interesting. take a step back and look at why we are are we are. they're up about 45% over the past year. and that's exceptional relative to all equity markets. so until we see it timent away within the sector, it's clear that we're going to continue to see some divergent. >> and what do you think those equity markets want to hear from
jerome powell? >> he will be asked about the coronavirus. the message from the fed so far has been look at it too early to say. >> exactly. the fed kept himself to the fact that this present as new risk. but he is continued to say that the u.s. economy remains in a booked place for them to shift our current monetarily policy champs. it's too soon to tell where it will -- trummable. any component of the economy. from powell. just trying create this financial conditions supportive of his ongoing expansion. >> thank you very much. >> thanks for your analysis this morning. remember, you can join in the conversation. get involved in the day as f you would like. to how long will u.s. outper foreperson mans stay.
it's the function to use on your bloomberg. >> at all-time highs despite the chapter and the very well red dinosaurs. up next, we'll take a look at the stocks to watch at the open including daimler as the economy freed up cash. plenty more on daimler as we said coming down the day. matt miller on the ground. but bim bank radio. he's live tonight in the lynn in the lynn cone area.
12 minutes past. let's get an update. here's leighann gearrin. >> thanks, anna. the move risks in blaming tensions with downing streets. the block won stricter terms on unfair competition, fishing and human rights. and the e.u. wants to force the u.k. so continues to abide by its rules in areas such as state aid. prime minister boris johnson has dismissed some of the demands. angela america will take an active role in choosing her next successor. that's after her heir apparent separated and not run for the chancellorship. a.k.k. i'm able to stamp her authority on the party. the final straw was last week when a local chapter defied her orders and voted alongside the far right. sing mother is bracing after the
coronavirus outbreak. the city is losing 20,000 visitor as day. and that could get worse if the virus persists. that's a bigger impact. china accounts for about 20% of sing mother's tourism. he has released his annual budget. he's proposing deep cuts to social program that increases. the news would push hem out of -- the budget says more a list of policy answer pir rations. it is no binding power as federal spending is decided by congress. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 20 countries. this is bloomberg. annea? , matt? anna: leighann gearrin near london. let's go get the stocks that we're watching this morning from
ound the newsroom, we have zamary looking at daimler. and danny berge is chew wi. let me ask you this -- >> they could get some positive news as early as today. he is the parents owner of t-mobile. and t-mobile could get court sprint andr their 26 t-mobile. watch those shares at the open, nna. anna: anne marie, thank you. et's come to you on daimler. >> there were still some negative surprises today with the 2019 details figured including a net loss that hand been predicted since -- also they're cutting the dividend to
the lowest -- to the bottom of rain. it's going to have to be out of cost cuts because they're also predicting a decline in deliveries and also flat revenue. anna? anna: ok. focus on daimler, then. and danny what, are we hearing from chewy in the travel sector? >> it's a bit of good news that seems rare this day for chewy. it's saying that its fiscal year guidance is raising a thing that will grow faster. part of it has to do with the fact that its rival thomas cook is no more. so that's one less competition earn.e has to 37e other ground someone the 7 planes.
they say the total cost could be as much as $375 million before their high end was $400 million euros. he says he can't remember any start of the year as dynamic as this one is. >> ok. amazing stuff. thanks to ann marie. it's covering first go is a function you can use on your mobile app. my co-anker matt miller will be speaking to him. that interview coming later on today. so hola. you can catch it that that right here a little bit on later on. coming up, on the program before that though, european banks have been the best performing sector in the top 600. we discuss the outlet inner the sector. this is bloomberg.
♪ anna: welcome back to the european open. 0 minutes until the equity session. to make some ground catching up with the u.s. a number of coronavirus cases continues to rise. bloomberg's business week takes a look at how its close relative impacted the global economy and why the coronavirus outbreak could be much worse. >> sars was a killer. both literally and economically. sars wereer veer acute pess patory syndrome. it knocked two full percentage points off china's growth. g.d.p. rose 2.1% but dropped to 1.9% in the second. the country's relatively small weight limited the global economic impact. back in 2003, china's g.d.p. was 4% of the global total.
now, it's 21%. which means any drop now will be harder. the latest outbreak occurred during the lunar holiday a peak time for consumption for china. so if the outbreak is contained quickly, growth that might be hammered in the first quarter could recover laettner 2020 that would pull .10 below's bloomberg's original forecast. but the damage to growth might be more severe. neighbors would be hit harder especially in hong kong, south korea and vietnam. >> a timely update on oronavirus vs. sars. focus ian on the banking sector. as earnings from big players
please, the markets, one has issued for the sex consolidation or perhaps the lack "on the fly." this weekend the c.e.o. of b.n.l., an atallian subsidiary of bnsf and they say they have the most trouble with building profitability. >> hey we're on set in london. she is the head of the financial institution coverage a very good morning to youment we talked there about the confusion. and also the head winds that stop it from happening. do you think that consolidation is coming? do you see more of it from the banking sector from here. >> look, one thing is clear. banks are facing tremendous pressure on profitability. > that's one way to cut cost is
through m.n.a. >> as you said it is challenging. and it hasn't happened yet. it's being considered toe. the reason why it doesn't happy is because there are challenges. the execution challenges. i think in the trident point in the past, it hasn't been successful. we have enabling technology. we have a level playing field on regulation. we have regulator that is important. behind you know, stronger and larger. >> those things you said, it sounds that it makes sense. will it be cross border and is that the thing that you're referring to when you talked about the head wind. is that the biggest head wind. you had a cross board between you and the universal twins. i think a number of things have
to happen before we see that happen. for instance. banking union, harmization of the insove sven si. a pleavel playing field. so think before that you will see -- you will go get see consolidation among european manks. because that's more palatable from the poibts of execution. >> and it is clear that year is further. so we will see the mess control. across the board there. which of the domestic markets right for that. >> i think the depress prested for low. and the lower is a european wide thing. >> so i think you will see most your yeans in their predictions. >> do you think -- you mentioned full banking or banking union is one of the things that we need to see cross border. >> is germany going to get
behind full banking union and nsurance and all of those. well, there has been a mound which we saw last year. this is a process that may last for years. there are many stakeholders involved. but definitely -- it's definitely a trend towards them. because you can see politicians and regulators talk talking about the need that you can have them stronger and large one . you need be big. what about the lessons that we learned from past mna. tempting. now it's the rash is there. you can see it strike him. but at the same time theyly there. and didn't deliver it. well, as i said the number of things are different now. for me the most important thing is that you a level playing field in regulation.
they are be a more positive may crole outlook. and some of the hair. the ajustments you have to adjust it. >> do you sing all the parent e parts. so we're going see the m & m. this is about big -- struggling with lower profitability. >> i >> you cannot steve scale. but apart from the -- so they -- i was like management and insurance. >> governors have trying to get the health care. i spent the five years. so they are be supportive of the strength s are >> thanks very much. . he stays with us. more to come on the banking sector. shortly. we'll have your key so stories to watch out today.
♪ anna: welcome back to "bloombarg markets: european open." 30 minutes to go until the start of the equities trading session. some key stories will be watching out for. we are watching for the primary race in new hampshire, powell's testimony on capitol hill. we also get policy announcements here in the u k clues as to where perhaps the financial services sector is going, and the infrastructure agenda. bloomberg economics executive editor is in london, as chancellor sajid javid set out april transition period plan.
derek wallbank is in singapore focused on the busy ahead with jerome powell's semiannual monetary policy report, of the democratic presidential primary in new hampshire. we start with derek on all things united states today. good morning. what can we expect from jerome powell later on when he testifies? expect thatan report. you can expect a lot of attention in the room on what he is going to say. donald trump came out critical of him yet again recently. you always get that then i make when powell testifies, although he has a very good relationship with lawmakers. later on the real action of the day is in new hampshire. the new hampshire primary is underway. bernie sanders expected to probably come in first. it is a bit more of a battle for who will come into next. it is also a state where people attend to drop out if they don't do pretty well. atthere are some candidates
risk of actually ending their presidential campaign there. -- one-time front runner trouble. is in some elizabeth warren from neighboring massachusetts could really use a win. it is really going to be all to play for in that election, so i think you really have to watch the new hampshire primary. already, three tiny little towns have voted in new hampshire just after midnight. it was a bit of a surprise result. beenlobuchar, who has surging in polls, the senator from minnesota, is your early leader, after 27 votes were cast. i know it is a very small sample size, but such is the first in the nation primary. klobuchar is looking to continue her momentum from iowa in this state. a really interesting contest i think it will be really decisive in a lot of ways. is something
we will certainly be watching. assignment, or do we know about sajid javid's plans for financial deregulation? it seems to be getting quite a lot of headlines in the u.k.. simon: there are reports coming out that he is looking for a durable relationship with the e.u. on financial services. the form of a relationship called equivalence. that barstow city administration is looking for the equipment relationship -- one of the problems about equivalency can be revoked pretty quickly and they are working to get around that. anna: what does that mean for the city of london in practice? anduse in a sense, equivalence is the way the conversation has been going for some time, and i suppose he has known that for some time. relationship is vital for the u.k. economy and it gives leverage to brussels with the u.k. the u.k.'s argument would be
that they would give them access to the city of london, and it is in everybody's interest to relationship.d what the city wants is at the equivalence of a get is not easily reversed. now that brussels can impose a short notice period, it has done so on switzerland. they are looking for much forward so asg not to lose more jobs into the eurozone. anna: ok, thanks to simon kennedy and to derek wallbank for a preview of what lies ahead in the u.k. and in the united states today. let us stick with the u.k. story. stefanos papapanagiotou from ubs is still with us. preparednesson from the financial services sector for the brexit-related ahead,, andhat lie opportunities, perhaps sajid javid talking about how equivalence, needs to be a
reliable, equipment process. of course, it can be withdrawn at any time by e.u. regulators. what do we need to watch for is this conversation continues? stefanos: it is in negotiation, so the outcome is uncertain as we speak. ideally, there would be a long great period, at least for global banks, so they have time to make their preparations in time. i think we have to watch other negotiation goes. at the moment it is too difficult to say. anna: a long grace be bump in the transition from what we have now and moving to equivalents? or a long grace period they've equivalents is to be withdrawn? stefanos: both. anna: so if any change , it comes with a grace period? ok. best whate one i else is high up on the agenda? stefanos: the highest on the
agenda is dealing with the , theures on the top line costs that are inflexible, and the capital headwinds that are from updates in regulation. i think that is what people are focusing on. incitingfocusing on growth, dealing with the cost issue. anna: what can they do about it? you refer to some of these costs as inflexible. issues? the cost-based stefanos: infrastructure costs, operations-related costs. the banks have done, mostly well up to now, to reduce costs, but given the topline, it continues pressured. if they have to materially improve their outlook, they need to work further in reducing
costs. anna: what about the topline, the challenges the topline faces? is their creative thinking and innovation that will drive that higher, or is it just a sort of an accepted future path that the topline is under challenge? stefanos: it is an accepted is hereath because it to stay, but banks have been looking for ways to create revenue which is unrelated to interest rates. creating income revenue or focusing their capital more time higher spread businesses and lending businesses, or shifting the lending makes. of course, that goes with a higher credit risk. anna: are there any self measures they can take at this time of lower interest rate , is that accepted that lower for longer is easy to stay? stefanos: it doesn't seem that the ecb will change its view on the policy rate. the macro outlook isn't going to
be in more positive within 2020. so i think the banks have to focus on reviving their returns returns- revising their target to numbers that are achievable and sustainable throughout this environment. anna: the you have conversations about european versus u.s. banks, is it something that still preoccupies executives, the transatlantic media, or is it just more of it in the media? stefanos: the u.s. has been growing quite significantly. europe hasn't. that reflects the state of the sector. i, think banks are focusing on their own situation how they can drive returns and improve their return outlook. anna: stefa stefanos papapanagiotou, thank you so us. for joining up next, slashing its dividend to free up cash for his costly ships to electric cars. we are live in stuttgart with the latest. matt miller wit will be speak
♪ anna: welcome back to "bloombarg markets: european open." london.41 in we are bracing ourselves to a positive start for the european trading session despite all the news around the coronavirus. let's get the bloomberg business flash for you. >> alibaba is apparently blocked from hong kong links to china. we have learned that it cannot be included in the program making the financial hub to chinese investors. the exquisite of companies with secondary listings and weighted voting rights was part of an agreement between the mainland and hong kong exchanges.
boeing says it will take several quarters to return the 737 max reache fleet following a grounding of almost 700 planes on the tarmac after the two fatal crashes. boeing aims to get flying again by mid-2020. this company faces an uphill battle in trying to purchase an elevator unit as a crucial that approaches. we have learned about labor visitors and some executives are becoming increasingly worried. they think a sell -- a sale of kona and cvc capital partners will face a lengthy review. scrutinizing employee travel budgets at north america's largest oil explorer. austerity measures are unusual for the company. it was one of the few major explorers to avoid job or dividend cuts during the oil slump.
that is your bloomberg business flash. .nna: thank you ,leigh-ann matt miller is waiting to interview the ceo of daimler. talking about all things related to the car sector, michelin has warned -- nissan has warned sales in china are expected to drop this month, adding to a forecast of low profits. we spoke to the company's cfo about the potential longer-term impact of the virus. crisishis stage of the of the coronavirus, it is very difficult to guess what is going to happen. our first concern was about our employees. of china --mployees none of the mission in employees in china have been affected. our factories resumed activity yesterday morning. but we are concerned about the potential consequence of this situation. we know that our sales will be
february. impacted in beyond that, it is very difficult to guess what is going to happen. and if the chinese economy is going to stop for a very long period, it will have an impact on the entire supply chain in some industries, including automotive. for the time being, we have no specific warning or specific supply.about our own nejra: you lowered forecasts for 2020, but those numbers don't actually take into account of the impact of the coronavirus yet. get,uch worse could it given the backdrop already that led to the lowering of the 2020 ?orecast guest: our 2020 outlook was based on the global trend of the different markets we are serving . we believe that overall, the original equipment markets in
all our activities -- passenger car, trucks, and specialty equipment such as agriculture will probably be negative during the year, although the replacement market will probably demonstrate a stable outlook. so our outlook for 2020 was based on this hypothesis. we just mentioned that if there of a systemic consequence the coronavirus crisis, then it is much more difficult to guess what is going to happen. anna: that was the cfo of michelin speaking echoes of the to the bloomberg team earlier on. daimler/is its dividend to free up cash for his costly ships to electric cars. its cost-cutting crusade continues as it forgot for ebit
for the year is significantly higher than in 2019. my colleague, matt miller joins us on the phone from stuttgart. your thoughts on what we have seen this morning from daimler. was surprised you? matt: not the ebit announcement, -- not the eno announcement, but the salbo announcementi,t they expect to sell fewer cars in 2020 than in 2019. not that we are talking about huge margins here, daimler's mercedes luxury brand has lower margins than volkswagen, bmw, even a lower margins than peugeot and citroen, so it has for daimler slog because they are not making enough money from cars to make a profit. anna: and a lot has been made on the fact that they will need to make further investments. the cost input required just gets tougher as the sector
pivots toward electric vehicles. matt: exactly. they have to make huge investments in electric vehicles. look at volkswagen, which is putting 50 billion euros into its electric vehicle project. that am learning to do something like that. but it has huge costs. not only is it fighting the same diesel issues -- rather than just taking punishment and paying the fine, not only does it have to deal with the cartel german competitors do, and the global slowdown, but it has 300-4000 employees globally. expenses are very high. part of the reason they will have to cut jobs -- they have 000-4000 employees --304, employees globally, so expenses are very high. anna: we saw some reporting
about this over the weekend. as the report that come through been anticipated? matt: we haven't got specific numbers as far as job cuts yet, we just have the savings numbers. it is actually 1.4 billion euros by the end of 2022 to be exact, but i will ask on the colonials about that when i speak to him -- ola källenius about that when i speak to him. as well as the dividend cuts. slashing the dividend is a much bigger cut than was anticipated. aren'tf investors who concerned specifically about income for themselves, they will thesking why halve dividends at all? invest soe to much money on an e.v. fleet, don't you needed to get busy and
spend money to build electric cars? anna: interesting, i will definitely tune in for his response. good to speak to you, matt. that is my call anchor, matt miller. he will be speaking to the daimler ceo a little later on today. don't miss that conversation. you got a preview of what will be discussed. coming up, the global economy is at the mercy of the coronavirus outbreak. we look at how they are betting down the hatches in our morning call. this is bloomberg. ♪ battening down the hatches, next in our morning call. this is bloomberg. ♪ erg. ♪
>> the death toll from the universe has topped 1000. there are now over 43,000 confirmed cases worldwide. that is as criticism mounts over china's transparency in its handling of the epidemic. president xi jinping visited a hospital yesterday, his first public appearance since the death of the doctor who spoke about the coronavirus. in the u.k., the government plans to break away from e.u. rules governing financial services according to chancellor sajid javid. he says the u.k. does want to agree on a durable trading relationship for banks. he adds that the u.k. and the e.u. may choose to do certain things, but the starting point u.k.be what works for the the u.s. has charged for members of the chinese army for hacking consumer credit agency equifax, a breach that exposed the personal information of about americans.
attorney general william barr says the ruling is a reminder to china that the u.s. can track down hackers and prosecute them. putkrock has promised to climate change concerns at the center of its investment strategy. that did not stop activists from storming the office yesterday. protesters barricaded the premises, spraying red paint on the floors, and covered walls with graffiti. the firm has seen protests in other cities over the past few years. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna? anna: thanks very much. this asset management company is in defensive mode and suggests other investors do the same. let's get the morning call with bloomberg's dani burger. dani: it is saying that investors should be looking at defensive assets. specifically defensive fixed
income. they have upgraded their call on bonds and moved it from mutual to underweight. the chief strategist spoke about this in his upgrade -- rather, his adjustments to his portfolio. the language he used was stark. he said the global economy is at the mercy of the coronavirus. he said for the midterm, this is they and investors should be taking. the is overweight u.s. treasuries as well as local --rency on the other side local currency emerging-market debt. there really big other asset that has done very well is gold. but he says that because of this massive rally we have seen in the precious metal, it is starting to look expensive. however, we are not quite there yet, according to managers because of paltry yields and because of all the risks out there, gold is still an attractive buy despite the fact
that it has seen such a massive rally. anna: thanks very much to bloomberg dani burger with the latest on that date call. let's look -- on that pictet call. we have a few minutes before the start of european equity trading. this could be interesting from the tech sector, ams with better-than-expected numbers. a lookout for any move to the upside on that share price. deutsche telekom, interesting to see. t-mobile is said to be about to win the court-approval for its sprint takeover. this has been a long time in the making. that could be important for deutsche telecom. we will keep an eye on that. watch out for moves in the likes tui.ssan and we talked about how businesses have made noises with regards to being resilient to the coronavirus. doesn't mean they necessarily positive.ntirely mission and has seen some brokers talking about a miss on
the ebit level. we will keep an eye on that well.as . coming up, the market open futures pointing to an upside for the start of the european trading day, despite all the headlines around the coronavirus. it seems investors are wanting to push the markets higher. this is bloomberg. ♪ . this is bloomberg. ♪
anna: a minute to go until the start of cash equity trading. good morning everybody. your headlines. coronavirus deaths top 1000. but global equities climbed. wall street touches another record high. european companies downplay the impact of the coronavirus. michelin says its supply chain is safe, and tui has seen no softness in bookings. daimler slashes dividends. its cost-cutting crusade continues as it says it will sell fewer cars this year than in 2019. matt miller space to the ceo later today in stuttgart. good morning, everybody.
we saw the s&p open in the u.s. hitting on all new time high yesterday. as a result of that, we are expecting a catch-up here in europe. europe saw ftse futures and dax futures all pointing to the upside. a few earnings stories to keep off. but no doubt, it will be this move in the risk-on direction dominating the start of trading this morning. let's take a look at markets in europe. it is 8:00 on this tuesday morning. here are european equities. a strong start for the spanish 1%.et, the ibex up by no great movement in the pound or the euro. a bit of retracement downwards in the dollar. we will talk about american exceptionalism and the demand of u.s. assets. .7%.tse 100 is up by despite the declining death toll of the coronavirus, despite the increase in infection it numbers
and expectations that those numbers will continue to climb we did see, some analysis and research coming out of london that suggested that maybe the mortality of rate is as low as 1%, if you believe all the numbers. even the researchers admit that there are huge uncertainties there. but perhaps that is some convert to investors -- taken as some comfort by investors. in the international spread is where we are seeing that intensified. lots to talk about with regards the coronavirus, but at the moment, the market is focusing instead on the earnings story and perhaps on dividends, perhaps on jerome powell, who will be speaking later. on a day where we go very risk-on. seems like the market is not as committing that much from a sector perspective many. of the sectors in europe are in positive territory except for a little area of red coming out of discretionary, but
essentially, all these boats are being lifted by the rather positive tied this morning. ,uropean equitie equity markets what do we have to the upside? we have numbers out from this energy business a little earlier on. an upgrade to just beat early on. united utilities, there are utility names going higher. united utilities is up just over 3%. nokia is there. let's have a look at the downside. montclair coming through with numbers, with a move to the downside of 4.9%. we also see that electric components is a loser, down by 2.4%. a host of assorted stocks are to morning.ide this
, in terms of sector moves we mentioned earlier on that all sectors are in positive territory, but it is basically telecoms and sources that do well this morning. telecom has opened, up by 4% this morning -- deutsche telekom. european markets opening higher as stocks continue to shake off the impact of the coronavirus, even as the death toll reaches 1000 people. joining us now is bilal hafeez, hive.nd founder of macro hig morning. let's start by accessing this very risk-on session we have. u.s. stocks high yesterday. why the stock rally question mark is this a logical a session of the market of the contextualized threat of the coronavirus, or what is happening here? bilal: number one, i think a lot of people are using the size playbook in interpreting the virus which means near-term hit to growth before you see a bounce.
investors are inclined toward that view. there has been a slowdown in ,ates of infection from hubei and there have been studies come ratef that show that the could be lower than anticipated, so i think that is giving comfort to markets. at the same time, there are huge amounts of uncertainty around the virus. we still don't know how much it will spread. it does seem more virulent than sars. nevertheless, in terms of news the last few days, it has not been as bad as expected. anna: i am looking at this chart which basically put a scale that shows the number of new cases confirmed each day, and there is a sense perhaps if you are looking forward, that it is trending downwards. maybe perhaps that is something the global population can cling to, and besides that, global investors. would about what this does to other assets? oil prices have been dragged
downwards on concerns about global growth. i read a story this morning that talked about oil trading businesses trying to buy up space on ships and store this oil because they are seeing depressed demand from china. what happens to commodities. bilal: commodities are tricky. we know the chinese growth will be slower. so i think pressure on commodities will remain down. however, other commodities like copper and oil -- you could get a boost because of global policy response such as rates falling which could provide a stimulus to markets and pull up markets.he other but in china, the markets will be on the relatively weaker side whereas other markets will boost. a anna: in terms of the policy response, do you expect more from the pboc? we have seen liquidity injections, some activity in the repo market suggesting it is investors?of there is a suggestion that maybe the pboc comes forward and does
more. bilal: i think in the end the more.ill do the last year or two, they have been trying to deleverage the economy. that.oes counter to i think they will try to be more cautious and not lead to any excessive credit will back. but i think they will have to do extra steps to stabilize the economy. the problem, though, is that this is a real supply shock to economy. there is on his so much the central bank can do if people are not going to the factories on.so so you will see more of a fiscal response where there is an actual expenditure by the government to force activity to pick up in the economy. anna: there will be a focus on the extent to which business goes, back to work this week whether that is possible without risking a further outbreak, i suppose. what about the broader emerging market space? turninghis analyst bullish on emerging market.
what do you think? bilal: our take is a more new west approach. our view is that markets very tied to china should remain weak. many of the asian markets will remain on the weak side. other e.m. said are less links to china, who don't have the economic ties or the commodity like, they should do better in this market. i think there is a case of relative performance of certain e.m.'s against other e.m.'s rather than outright e.m.'s view. anna: ok, bilal hafeez, he will stay with us for the program. let's get the bloomberg business flash for you. for that, we go to the end leherings -- we got to igh-ann. daimler wants to conserve cash to pay for an shift to cars.ic it says earnings before interest and taxes will grow quite to the
.amily compared to 2019 t-mobile is poised to win court approval for its takeover of sprint. it is set to defeat a lawsuit that has fought to block the deal. it is a win for t-mobile and its owner, deutsche telecom as well as sprints owner, softbank. the combined company will have about 18 million combined subscribers. faces an uphill battle in its attempt to purchase an elevator unit as a crucial deadline approaches. we learned that labor represented as an some executives are becoming increasingly worried. and think a sale of kone cbc capital partners will face a competition review. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you so much. let's tell you what is coming up with regards to the auto sector, then there is slashing dividends to free up -- for the costly shift to electric cars. the investment it requires.
matt miller will be speaking to today.mler ceo later he is saying this morning that they are not pleased with the results. but the stock goes higher by just over 3% on the positive comments around earnings before interest and tax. we will break down the numbers with matt a little later on. this is bloomberg. ♪ er on. this is bloomberg. ♪
11 minutes past eight here in london. a positive session for the european markets. the stock market moving, ftse 100 higher by .9%. the dax, 1% higher. u.s. stocks and bonds are peers, aslative to investors decide america will be less affected by the coronavirus outbreak. to do asking the question on our u.s.log how, long will the outperformance sustain? let's get back to the bilal hafeez. this is interesting, the idea of u.s. exceptionalism a loving stocks to go higher but also roosting the dollar as a haven. bilal: that's right. in terms of stocks, the story is quite fairly well known. u.s. stocks have outperformed for many years. a large reason for that is the tech sector, which is unique around the world. the outperformance continues to help the u.s. economy.
in terms of the dollar, it doesn't really get a benefit when the world is risk-off, as we are seeing currently. at the same time, in the case of the virus breakout, china and all economies linked to china are suffering the most, in the u.s. is furthest away from all of this geographically and economically as well, so in that sense, the dollar gets a boost. anna: how long do you think this expensive stock market in the u.s., relative to the rest of the world continues? i have been looking at u.s. stock valuations surging in comparison to the rest of the world on this chart. it is a multi-your story. there was lots of green shoots of recovery in europe talk, and maybe it doesn't feel that way, does it? bilal: i think the biggest reason is because the u.s. has a big tech sector and europe doesn't. that is a big reason why you have u.s. outperforming. the u.s. tax environment is also more favorable to companies.
you look at competition policy regulations, the environment in the u.s. is much more favorable to u.s. companies making large profits, where is europe isn't geared in the same way. anna: we will see jerome powell testifying this week a couple of times. no doubt, the coronavirus will be the conversation. but given the resiliency of the u.s. to this, it might not feature very highly. what should we watch out for, do you think? bilal: i think number one he will make some reference to the virus. that will just add to the general dovish tone of the fed. the fed likes to find any excuse to be dovish and this will be one of those. and also how much further it will go. there will be many republicans who might question the balance sheet. we are likely to get many questions around this. we may also get questions around the strategic review of the fed, will they change their inflation target, allow some overshoots to make up for inflation under shoes? some of those questions may come
up. anna: what about the view on u.s. growth? president trump put out a budget addicting growth in 2020 over 3%. analysts surveyed on the bloomberg suggested it will be 2020.ike 1.8% in what are your expectations? bilal: 2% makes sense. if you look at u.s. growth the last four or five years, it always seems to be 2%. the u.s. is stuck around that 2% mark. in terms of assumptions of around 3%, it does help the numbers in terms of trump allowing him to have his expenditure proposals, but the numbers are way too high, they will have to be scaled back. anna: what about in the fx world? what about euro-dollar at the moment? we trading at 1.09 right now. what about the euro? we heard about change at the top in germany, at the top of the cdu, then who knows, after angela merkel, but what are your
expectations for the euro? bilal: we generally have a bearish tone on the euro. we think it will fall further from the current levels. the euro has been trading in a slight downward bias and that will continue, we think. on the fundamentals biases, everything is going against europe right now. whether it is germany, ireland, the knock-on effect from china, the auto sector as well. daimler and volkswagen, can they two electric or not? that affects europe as well. all these forces are weighing against the euro. that will keep the bias down. the one counterpoint to all of that is that the u.s. probably does want a weak dollar, and the fed is less hawkish on that so that, its downward pressure on the dollar. it results in a weaker euro but not as much.
anna: what about the trade conversation between the u.s. and europe? we will watch for that in 2020. thank you very much, bilal hafeez, ceo and founder of hive. he will be counted on his conversation with matt and i at 9:00 a.m. this morning on his radio. we are 17 minutes into our trading day. shares of 20 pop gaining as the company -- shares of tui gaining as the company expects a strong 2020. and, our celeb underlying is making opening statements in strasberg at a european parliament plenary session. the topic is building a mandate for negotiations with the u.k. was to the whole thing at live go on your bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ anna: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: european open., go 20 minutes into a positive trading session, stocks up more than 1.5%, the ftse and the dax amongst them. annmarie hordern has a breakdown. >> it is all about earnings this morning. 10%, this comes due to the fact of thomas cook's failure. tui seeing their revenue drive faster than expected.
morgan stanley says it will be a very strong summer for the company. such as telecom is also apt given the fact that t-mobile may get as soon as today come court approval for their $26 billion takeover for sprint. and montclair is down 3%, it was halted when it fell 4% at the start of trading. the earnings picture for them was not that had. it is all about the coronavirus. they say they are not sure what the impact will be. they are suspecting it would be a material revenue to the downside because of that. anna: let's cross now to the middle east and africa summit taking place in abu dhabi. manus cranny has been interviewing many of them this morning and he continues this morning. good morning, manus. manus: good morning to you. have miguel azevedo, citigroup had of middle east and africa. good to see you. miguel : good to see you.
manus: this time last year, we were setting up for big banking consolidation in the middle east. bankings year hold more consolidation? miguel : it may happen. i don't see it as a major thing. i see consolidation in other sectors more than banking. trying to create stronger operating platforms. the view is to become more efficient, to compete better. enough, largegly options in terms of capital raising. this is the theme that we see this year, getting ready to go out and raise capital. manus: we are getting more efficient with the balance sheet operationally. miguel: correct. manus: is there a pent-up biplane of ipos or private placement? where is the pipeline and how
does it look? miguel: it looks good. it is not the best ever, but it looks good. manus: more ipos than private sector? 50-50. the private sector is becoming more of an option in the past few years. but we don't rule out ipos is all. manus: and i was running through the markets and i was saying, what could throw us off track? coronavirus, and i said, do you think the u.s. election code? you gave me a beautiful phrase -- where are we in the cycle for you? we have seen several peaks of sensitivity, short ones, but they come and go. the this tells you is that market is very volatile and so if you want to raise capital, you have to be ready and use very short windows. year, look forward, this
we have the iran situation here, coronavirus, the u.s. election, and god knows what else. there is a lot happening. people are in a defensive mode. manus: just how short are those windows? are you talking about a period of weakness where you have to literally pull the trigger and go? miguel: no, i think they are about two months. but they are becoming shorter, to be honest. the nerveave to pick and know that it will reopen. different sort of windows on in the past where you would go six months with no ipos. i don't think we are there. volatile. on the other hand, demand and supply are actually coming together. so the equilibrium point i think is here.
manus: you were on the aramco ipo, the biggest ticket in the world. door to morethe depth and breadth in saudi arabia? miguel: i think it opens the door. when you have large privatization anywhere in the world, it has an effect in terms of -- it creates momentum. right after that, you have to hold. but the lasting impact is very positive. so i am very positive in saudi post aramco. manus: can i push a little more? weight of your mandates? is it in saudi? miguel: saudi is the biggest market in the region so it will always be the main market, but we do see other markets primarily in the uae. it is very active. as i was saying in the beginning, we see a lot of platforms in the uae becoming
ready to go even more international. this is large companies but also small companies. manus: what are the opportunities in if you can egypt? are they happening or boiling? miguel: egypt i think is a real market these days. you have seen the announcement on the telecom side. we see it as a massive market these days. if you get is a front year market. is will take time, but it will come. manus: miguel, thank you so much us.being with miguel azevedo, citigroup head of investment banking for the middle east and africa. there you go, anna. the windows are short this week. i will see you next week. see you next week.
anna: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." a positive trading day for european equities. let's look how the market is shaping up. gate,s out of the increasingly strongly i suppose, up by 8/10 of 1% on the stoxx 600 and the ftse 100, up to 31%, the dax up shy of 1%. some real movement to the upside coming through p european equities. investors try to look through the real threat to the chinese economy from the coronavirus and we see tragically the death toll continues to climb.
let's go to the individual sectors in focus, travel and leisure the biggest to the upside up 1.6%. easyjet, following and hot on the heels of the positive .utlook statement we got we see ams as one of the biggest fallers. the biggest fallers in terms of sector -- the ones not gaining so much, food and beverage, media, retail to the bottom end of the gaining scale. ams is the biggest losing stock in europe, which is interesting because it started out quite positive on the back of better-than-expected numbers. let's get a first word news update with leigh-ann gerrans. is ramping up demands ahead of trade talks with u.k.. it risks inflaming tensions with downing street. they want stricter terms on unfair competition and human rights, and controversially, the
eu wants to force the u.k. to abide by its rules in areas such as state aid. boris johnson has already dismissed some of the demands. german chancellor angela merkel will take an active role in choosing her next successor appearanceeir decided to step down and not run for the chancellorship. akk was unable to stand her authority on the party. the final straw happened last week when a local chapter of the cdu defied her orders and voted alongside the far right. in the u.s., president trump has released his annual budget. he's proposing deep cuts to social programs, but increases in defense and entitlement spending. the move would push the growth of federal debt about -- above $30 trillion over the next decade. the budget is more or less policy aspirations and has no binding power as federal spending is decided by congress. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
this is bloomberg. anna? anna: thank you, leigh-ann gerrans in london. the coronavirus death toll has topped 1000 with infection cases surpassing 43,000. at the province epicenter of the outbreak reported its highest number of fatalities yet. jinping has made his first public appearance in beijing since the death of a doctor who first spoke out about the virus. meanwhile, singapore could see a 25% to 30% decline in tourist to the coronavirus outbreak according to the tour is in chief. -- tourism chief. there is a lot of anecdotal evidence of business drying up, but that is not surprising given how much china contributes to
arrivals. asianour north correspondent stephen engle joins us. factcan we make of the that china has, on a day-to-day basis, reported fewer confirmed cases. we've got a chart i will show which tells the story. is that giving people reason for hope around this virus? stephen: we just have to look at the data and let it tell us what it is telling us. it is one of many things, but histhings i am looking at, is an indication the containment efforts in china are working? increase ofad an 2467 cases from yesterday. that is the smallest increase on a day-to-day basis since february 1, about a week and a half. that is encouraging because every day, we have seen in excess of 3000 new cases. on the death side, it is not promising.
118 new deaths is a daily record from day-to-day. the other side of the story on the number of new confirmed cases, could be indicative of or ae not being tested shortage of testing kits, which is obvious in the province and in wuhan particular. anna: are we getting more clarity on whether workers are getting back to work after a long holiday? sawrly, the quarantine we around the province is one part of the story, but this is having knocked on impacts from other parts of the economy. keep in mind many of these workers that are going back to the factories are migrant workers and the data from nomura, they are saying the trendline from past lunar new year holidays, we expected this because of travel restrictions that they would not be returning as fast, there was an extended
vacation by another week, but it is trending far below the midpoint. this couldsignal, have a deeper slowdown. the virus could have a bigger, deeper impact than previously thought. we are seeing some factories coming back. province is aubei huge automobile industry manufacturing center. ford and tesla among others saying they are giving -- getting their factories back online. volvo says it will be another couple of weeks in their factory. foxconn, saying they are not back up to full operation yet. they make the iphone and iphone parts in a major iphone city 300 miles north of wuhan. apple according to bloomberg intelligence could take a hit on the second quarter outlook just because of that. anna: stephen engle, bloomberg's north asia correspondent with the latest on the coronavirus. backlash at blackrock.
larry fink may have put climate change concerns at the center of the group's investment strategy, but that hasn't appeased climate activists it would seem. annmarie: tensions are very high right now. larry fink just last month promised to put climate change at the center of blackrock's investment strategy, for climate activists stormed the firm's paris office, barricading the premises, spraying red paint on the floors, and covering the walls with graffiti. it targeted the firm for its investment in companies that damage the environment. think of bnp paribas and socgen among them. paris was just the latest. blackrock has seen other protests including new york and london. pressure is on for blackrock, the largest asset manager and its competitors to tackle environmental and social concerns. fink has given executives new sustainability roles, these protests show how far will blackrock be able to go if it
wants to satisfy the harshest critics. anna: bloomberg annmarie hordern with all of that very interesting story. next, private equity firms have big plans for 2020. 75% of managers plan on raising an even bigger fund this year. according to a recent survey. we will speak to a partner at private equity about this. this is bloomberg. ♪
anna: welcome back to the european open. 40 minutes into a positive session, the ftse 100 up more than 1%. private equity firms have big plans according to a recent survey. about 75% of managers plan on raising an even bigger fund this year, the highest share since 2013 when a wise first started posting service. .ani: a telling survey this will be the story of 2020, the increased amount of money flowing into private equity and what they are going to be doing with that. i'm thrilled to say they joining me to discuss is rebecca gibson from a private equity fund in london. thank you for joining. i should say that you just raise
a fund raising for 1.5 billion euros. this story of more funds is one you know very well. what does it look like from your view? is it realistic these managers can raise bigger funds? when does the party stop? >> there are a number of factors going on here. ultimately, greater demand. big pension funds looking to raise allocations into private equity. yesterday, there was an announcement of an increase of another 4% to the asset class. billion,nother $10 significant capital continuing to flow into the space. the if you look back over last 12 years, we are only up 20% since last peak in 28 -- 2008 in capital raised into private equity. we have seen huge growth in other alternative space. private debt and infrastructure. private debt has grown over 300%.
there is an increasing flow of capital and private equity, but it is across broader asset classes. dani: across the board, but raising the money, be it private at -- debt or private equity come how does it get deployed? rebecca: you are seeing focused investment strategy. gethe upper end, where you headlines about raising 15 billion, that is upping up -- opening up more deal flow that wasn't yet addressable. walgreens wasn't rumor last year, that was $70 billion. that is only possible with bigger funds and coinvestment. dani: possibly more than 15 billion euros deal occurring. rebecca: that would be the largest ever european private equity deal. you are seeing mega funds able to go after targets that project there. for smaller and mid-end market, you are seeing growth. managers are looking for focused
investment strategies where they can unlock deals that may not have been thinking about private equity. we have a very strong focus on finding founders, managers who built up their own businesses and are looking for their first institutional capital. across europe, that remains a large part of that, particularly in germany and switzerland. really attractive businesses that are looking for the first institutional capital. dani: let's talk about risks out there. the coronavirus is one investors have been paying a lot of attention to and the possible economic impact of that. what does the view look like from the private equity world? could we see deals falling apart because of the threat of the virus's impact? rebecca: you can't afford to be complacent. it is clearly an issue affecting the world and is changing rapidly everyday. some rumors about infection rates down in china, we've got increased patience and that is creating an area of answer. no one is complacent, but it
pens on the sectors and geographies you are focused on. private equity is a long-term investment. we are looking at three to five-year investment. a can sit back and see particular company, what the effect that might have. you don't have to make a day-to-day trading decision. dani: what does it look like in conversations you have? let's look at the supply chain. are those conversations ongoing? rebecca: absolutely, you have to make sure you understand the risks that could affect your company's. repeat customers or subscription business models, we've got a long customer lifetime. in education, we have a private schools group. we are thoughtful about that people will not pull their children out based on the impact of a virus until they know the longer-term impact. that we on making sure are understanding the risks in our portfolio companies, but not making short-term panic decisions. dani: certainly something to
keep over the long-term regardless of what the risk is. rebecca, thank you so much. that was rebecca gibson, a partner at oakley capital private equity, looking at the possible risks. never being complacent has more money gets raised. anna: interesting conversation, dani burger on private equity markets. coming up, daimler/is dividends to free up cash. matt miller will be speaking to daimler's ceo later on today. catch that right here on bloomberg tv. this is bloomberg. ♪
anna: welcome back to the european open. a positive session 50 minutes into the trading session in europe. the ftse 100, up .9% and u.s. .1%res point higher between and .3%. daimler is freeing up cash, the crusade continuing as it forecast ebay for the year quite significantly higher than 2019 shares. 2019. shares are gaining. matt miller joins us on the phone from schuurs guard is he is awaiting in interview with the ceo of daimler. let me ask about the share price performance. the company is saying they are
not satisfied with this performance and yet, investors seems satisfied to shame -- send shares higher by 2%. matt: [indiscernible] i'm sorry. it looks as if we are having a problem establishing the connection with my cohost matt miller in stuttgart. he is a waiting to interview the ceo ola kaellenius of daimler. that will be brought to you a little later on on bloomberg tv. interesting to see them slashing their dividend. future mobility story. they are talking about coronavirus. they will gradually ramp up china operations. we will focus on the daimler story and matt will have that interview. novartis says a vaccine for the coronavirus could take one to two years to develop despite the pharmaceutical giant taking six months to create one for swine
flu. the ceo of novartis told will beg the challenge coordinate in a longer-term response to the epidemic. it is remarkable to see the response of the chinese government in terms of the largest quarantine we have seen in modern times to tackle this epidemic. when i take a step back, i see we have these moments where we have pandemics or epidemics. h1n1, thes h5n1, middle east respiratory symptom. in each, we galvanize the response. they reach the pandemic phase and the work goes down or diminishes. the challenge we have had is how do you maintain the effort in those gaps? how do you create the manufacturing capacity or scientific know-how to enable us to respond in the next moment? i'm not sure we have tackled that. there have been many efforts, but again and again, repeating
history we have with respect to pandemics. >> where should the leadership come from? visit government, who, or private companies? >> there are exciting efforts. there is a group that is looking to bridge these gaps, but longer-term, we do need governments. probably in the form of -- whether it is the g20 or something along those lines, to really come together to have some sort of sustained pandemic response over time. otherwise, we will have these moments and we will be scrambling to find a good response after the outbreak starts. >> do you see it changing? we will see. this will be an interesting moment. the scale of the current situation maybe will motivate a bigger long-term response. francine: i think you were in ,harge of the vaccines for h1n1 it usually takes five to six years to develop a vaccine. you did it in six months. vas: we did it in six months
because influenza vaccines, we understand very well. with a concerted effort, we will see the companies currently working on it can hopefully do something with any year or two, but it is important to note we will do the clinical trials and get the vaccine and in all likelihood, i hope this pandemic or outbreak is then controlled and what we do after that is the question. ceo: that was the novartis speaking to my colleague francine lacqua. that is vas narasimhan. we will bring you more of that interview on "leaders with blackrock." in the. economy is spotlight with jerome powell testifying before the house and financial services committee. what can we expect in markets? richard jones from the markets live team, fx energy strategist is in berlin for us. as we look ahead, i spoke to
laura cooper, -- i spoke to your colleague earlier and he was saying the coronavirus gives the fed another reason to sound dovish, which they like. what are you expecting from powell later on? expect it will be correct. i think he will tack -- the fed will be dovish. i think powell will talk about the strength of the u.s. economy and he will then highlight the coronavirus as a potential headwind for the global economy and therefore the u.s. economy. i don't expect the tack overly dovish today, but that is coming. to the market is expecting under 40 basis points of easing this year. i think we will get the fed moving toward market pricing in the coming months. i think they will want to see where the impact of the coronavirus is, but it will lead to the fed tacking more dovish. we will see rate cuts coming.
today asmove closer to we get the impact from the coronavirus becoming clear, but i think powell will probably today keep his options open, but eventually, he and the rest of the mp's at the fomc will tack dovish. anna: we've been asking on the markets live blog how long will u.s. outperformed sustain. this relates to stocks, where we have seen the record highs or strong performance in europe too but the u.s. continues to outperform global benchmarks. we see that in stocks but also in fx. we see the dollar benefiting from uncertainty around coronavirus. what are your thoughts on the question of today? richard: i think if we do get the fed actually cutting rates, and that the same pace they did last year, that will extend the resilience of u.s. markets. you can see them outperforming through the end of the year very easily because the one thing
that is supportive of u.s. assets is ample liquidity. i think if the fed lowers the cost, keeps the liquidity ample, the u.s. can keep outperforming. if the fed does start to cut rates even more aggressively than the market is pricing now, we might see that pullback in the dollar that many people have been calling for for some time. i don't think it will happen sometime soon. i think we are in the near term for dollars strength to continue but if the fed cuts rates as the market expects, i think we could see that feed into a weaker dollar toward the end of the year. emissions richard jones -- anna: richard jones, joining us from berlin. you can join the debate and have your say on the question of the day, how long will u.s. outperformed sustained. ib + tv is the function. we will bring you. or jeb jay powell as he delivers his semiannual monetary policy report to the house financial services committee later on today. keep an eye out for deutsche
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